We've made a list of our recent publications

We think this a good list for a research project that is now half-way through. These are publications from authors who work within HELIX. For publications arising from HELIX funding, please see If you cannot access any of these titles, the author will be happy to send you a copy.


N. W. Arnell, S. Brown, S. N. Gosling, P. Gottschalk, J. Hinkel, C. Huntingford, B. Lloyd-Hughes, J. A. Lowe, R. J. Nicholls, T. J. Osborn, T. M. Osborne, G. A. Rose, P. Smith, T. R. Wheeler, P. Zelazowski (2016) The impacts of climate change across the globe: A multi-sectoral assessment, Climatic Change 134 (3), pp 457–474 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1281-2

Good, P., Harper, A., Meesters, A., Robertson, E. and Betts, R. (2016) Are strong fire–vegetation feedbacks needed to explain the spatial distribution of tropical tree cover?. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 25: 16–25. doi: 10.1111/geb.12380

Jonathan Pycroft, Jan Abrell, Juan-Carlos Ciscar (2016) The Global Impacts of Extreme Sea-Level Rise: A Comprehensive Economic Assessment. Environmental and Resource Economics, 64 (2), pp 225–253 DOI: 10.1007/s10640-014-9866-9

Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Evangelos Voukouvalas, Alessandro Annunziato, Alessio Giardino, Luc Feyen (2016) Projections of extreme storm surge levels along Europe. Climate Dynamics, pp.1-20 DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3019-5

Papadimitriou, L. V., Koutroulis, A. G., Grillakis, M. G., and Tsanis, I. K.: High-end climate change impact on European runoff and low flows – exploring the effects of forcing biases, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1785-1808, doi:10.5194/hess-20-1785-2016, 2016.

Paul Hudson, W.J. Wouter Botzen, Luc Feyen, Jeroen C.J.H. Aerts (2016) Incentivising flood risk adaptation through risk based insurance premiums: Trade-offs between affordability and risk reduction, Ecological Economics, 125, p.1-13 doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2016.01.015

Philippe Roudier, Jafet C. M. Andersson, Chantal Donnelly, Luc Feyen, Wouter Greuell, Fulco Ludwig (2016) Projections of future floods and hydrological droughts in Europe under a +2°C global warming. Climatic Change, 135 (2), pp.341-355 DOI 10.1007/s10584-015-1570-4



Lorenzo Alfieri, Luc Feyen, Francesco Dottori, Alessandra Bianchi, Ensemble flood risk assessment in Europe under high end climate scenarios, Global Environmental Change, Volume 35, November 2015, Pages 199-212, ISSN 0959-3780,

Francesco Dottori, Peter Salamon, Luc Feyen, and Paulo Barbosa (2015) A procedure for global flood hazard mapping – the Africa case study. Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 17

Frieler, K., Levermann, A., Elliott, J., Heinke, J., Arneth, A., Bierkens, M. F. P., Ciais, P., Clark, D. B., Deryng, D., Döll, P., Falloon, P., Fekete, B., Folberth, C., Friend, A. D., Gellhorn, C., Gosling, S. N., Haddeland, I., Khabarov, N., Lomas, M., Masaki, Y., Nishina, K., Neumann, K., Oki, T., Pavlick, R., Ruane, A. C., Schmid, E., Schmitz, C., Stacke, T., Stehfest, E., Tang, Q., Wisser, D., Huber, V., Piontek, F., Warszawski, L., Schewe, J., Lotze-Campen, H., and Schellnhuber, H. J.: A framework for the cross-sectoral integration of multi-model impact projections: land use decisions under climate impacts uncertainties, Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 447-460, doi:10.5194/esd-6-447-2015, 2015.

Katja Frieler, Peter U. Clark, Feng He, Christo Buizert, Ronja Reese, Stefan R. M. Ligtenberg, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Ricarda Winkelmann & Anders Levermann (2015) Consistent evidence of increasing Antarctic accumulation with warming. Nature Climate Change 5, 348–352 doi:10.1038/nclimate2574

Koutroulis, A.G., Grillakis, M.G., Tsanis, I.K. and Papadimitriou, L., 2015. Evaluation of precipitation and temperature simulation performance of the CMIP3 and CMIP5 historical experiments. Climate Dynamics, pp.1-18. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2938-x

Jascha Lehmann, Dim Coumou, Katja Frieler (2015) Increased record-breaking precipitation events under global warming. Climatic Change, Volume 132, Issue 4, pp 501–515 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1434-y

Jiang, X., et al. (2015), Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian oscillation: Exploring key model physics in climate simulations, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 120, 4718–4748. doi:10.1002/2014JD022375.

Lewis, K. H., Lenton, T. M. (2015) Knowledge problems in climate change and security research, WIREs Clim Change, 6 (4), p.383-399, doi: 10.1002/wcc.346

Le Quéré, C., S. Capstick, A. Corner, D. Cutting, M. Johnson, A. Minns, H. Schroeder, K. Walker-Springett, L. Whitmarsh, and R. Wood (2015) Towards a culture of low-carbon research for the 21st Century. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Working Paper 161

Lontzek, T. S., Cai, Y.,Judd, K. L., Lenton, T. M. (2015) Stochastic integrated assessment of climate tipping points indicates the need for strict climate policy, Nature Climate Change, 5, p441-444 doi:10.1038/nclimate2570

Thomas S. Lontzek, Yongyang Cai, Kenneth L. Judd & Timothy M. Lenton (2015) Stochastic integrated assessment of climate tipping points indicates the need for strict climate policy. Nature Climate Change 5, 441–444 doi:10.1038/nclimate2570

Boini Narsimlu, Ashvin K. Gosain, Baghu R. Chahar, Sudhir Kumar Singh, Prashant K. Srivastava (2015) SWAT Model Calibration and Uncertainty Analysis for Streamflow Prediction in the Kunwari River Basin, India, Using Sequential Uncertainty Fitting. Environmental Processes, 2 (1), pp 79–95 DOI: 10.1007/s40710-015-0064-8

van Nes, E. H., Scheffer, M., Brovkin, V., Lenton, T. M., Ye, H., Deyle, E., Sugihara, G. (2015) Causal feedbacks in climate change, Nature Climate Change, 5 p.445-448 doi:10.1038/nclimate2568

Osborn, Timothy, Gosling, S. N., Wallace, Craig and Dorling, Stephen (2015) The water cycle in a changing climate. In: 7th World Water Forum, Words into Action. Faircount Media Group, London, pp. 14-19.

Poulter, B., MacBean, N., Hartley, A., Khlystova, I., Arino, O., Betts, R., Bontemps, S., Boettcher, M., Brockmann, C., Defourny, P., Hagemann, S., Herold, M., Kirches, G., Lamarche, C., Lederer, D., Ottlé, C., Peters, M., and Peylin, P.: Plant functional type classification for earth system models: results from the European Space Agency's Land Cover Climate Change Initiative, Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2315-2328, doi:10.5194/gmd-8-2315-2015, 2015.

Rayner, T., and A. Minns (2015) The challenge of communicating unwelcome climate messages, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Working Paper 162

Jacob Schewe, Christian Otto, and Katja Frieler (2015) An agent-based approach to modelling the effects of extreme events on global food prices. Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 17, EGU2015-12690

Sillmann, J., Lenton, T. M., Levermann, A., Ott, K., Hulme, M., Benduhn, F., Horton J. B. (2015) Climate emergencies do not justify engineering the climate, 5, p.290-292 doi:10.1038/nclimate2539

Snow RW, Kibuchi E, Karuri SW, Sang G, Gitonga CW, et al. (2015) Changing Malaria Prevalence on the Kenyan Coast since 1974: Climate, Drugs and Vector Control. PLoS ONE 10(6): e0128792. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0128792

Steven Wade, Michael Sanderson, Nicola Golding, Jason Lowe, Richard Betts, Nick Reynard, Alison Kay, Lisa Stewart, Christel Prudhomme, Len Shaffrey, Ben Lloyd-Hughes, Ben Harvey (2015) Met Office for the ASC: Developing H++ climate change scenarios. Adaptation Committee, Committee on Climate Change

Leonie Wenz, Sven Norman Willner, Alexander Radebach, Robert Bierkandt, Jan Christoph Steckel & Anders Levermann (2015) REGIONAL AND SECTORAL DISAGGREGATION OF MULTI-REGIONAL INPUT–OUTPUT TABLES – A FLEXIBLE ALGORITHM, Economic Systems Research, 27:2, 194-212, DOI: 10.1080/09535314.2014.987731

Wenzabc, L., Willnerab, S. N., Radebachacd, A., Bierkandtab, R., Christoph, J., Levermannab, S., Levermannab, A. (2015) Regional and sectoral disaggregation of multi-regional input-output tables - a flexible algorithm, Economic Systems Research, 27 (2), p.194-212 DOI:10.1080/09535314.2014.987731

Peili Wu, Jeff Ridley, Anne Pardaens, Richard Levine, Jason Lowe (2015) The reversibility of CO2 induced climate change. Climate Dynamics, 45 (3), pp 745–754 DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2302-6


Alfieri, L., Salamon, P., Bianchi, A., Neal, J., Bates, P. and Feyen, L. (2014), Advances in pan-European flood hazard mapping. Hydrol. Process., 28: 4067–4077. doi: 10.1002/hyp.9947

Nigel W. Arnell, Matthew B. Charlton, Jason A. Lowe, The effect of climate policy on the impacts of climate change on river flows in the UK, Journal of Hydrology, Volume 510, 14 March 2014, Pages 424-435, ISSN 0022-1694,

Barrett, S., Lenton, T. M., Millner, A., Tavoni, A., Carpenter, S., Anderies, J. M., Chapin III, F. S., Crépin, A-S., Daily, G., Ehrlich, P., Folke, C., Galaz, V., Hughes, T., Kautsky, N., Lambin, E. F., Naylor, R., Nyborg, K., Polasky, S., Scheffer, M., Wilen, J., Xepapadeas, A., de Zeeuw, A. (2014) Climate engineering reconsidered, Nature Climate Change, 4, p.527-529 doi:10.1038/nclimate2278

Robert Bierkandt, Leonie Wenz, Sven Norman Willner, Anders Levermann (2014) Acclimate—a model for economic damage propagation. Part 1: basic formulation of damage transfer within a global supply network and damage conserving dynamics. Environment Systems and Decisions, 34 (4), pp 507–524 DOI: 10.1007/s10669-014-9523-4

Brenden Jongman, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Luc Feyen, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Reinhard Mechler, W. J. Wouter Botzen, Laurens M. Bouwer, Georg Pflug, Rodrigo Rojas, Philip J. Ward (2014) Reply to 'Statistics of flood risk', Nature Climate Change, 4, p.844–845 doi:10.1038/nclimate2376

Juan-Carlos Ciscar, Paul Dowling (2014) Integrated assessment of climate impacts and adaptation in the energy sector, Energy Economics, 46, p.531–538 doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2014.07.003

Ciscar JC, Feyen L, Soria A, Lavalle C, Raes F, Perry M, Nemry F, Demirel H, Rozsai M, Dosio A, Donatelli M, Srivastava A, Fumagalli D, Niemeyer S, Shrestha S, Ciaian P, Himics M, Van Doorslaer B, Barrios S, Ibáñez N, Forzieri G, Rojas R, Bianchi A, Dowling P, Camia A, Libertà G, San Miguel J, de Rigo D, Caudullo G, Barredo J-I, Paci D, Pycroft J, Saveyn B, Van Regemorter D, Revesz T, Vandyck T, Vrontisi Z, Baranzelli C, Vandecasteele I, Batista e Silva F, Ibarreta D, Ed.: Juan-Carlos Ciscar (2014) Climate Impacts in Europe. The JRC PESETA II project, JRC Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, 26586 EN,

Ehlert, D. and Levermann, A. (2014) Mechanism for potential strengthening of Atlantic overturning prior to collapse, Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 383-397, doi:10.5194/esd-5-383-2014

Joshua Elliott, Delphine Deryng, Christoph Müller, Katja Frieler, Markus Konzmann, Dieter Gerten, Michael Glotter, Martina Flörke, Yoshihide Wada, Neil Best, Stephanie Eisner, Balázs M. Fekete, Christian Folberth, Ian Foster, Simon N. Gosling, Ingjerd Haddeland, Nikolay Khabarov, Fulco Ludwig, Yoshimitsu Masaki, Stefan Olin, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Alex C. Ruane, Yusuke Satoh, Erwin Schmid, Tobias Stacke, Qiuhong Tang, Dominik Wisser (2014) Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change, PNAS, 111 (9), p.3239–3244, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1222474110

Giovanni Forzieri, Luc Feyen, Alessandro Cescatti, Enrique R. Vivoni (2014) Spatial and temporal variations in ecosystem response to monsoon precipitation variability in southwestern North America, Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 119 (10), p.1999-2017 DOI: 10.1002/2014JG002710

Brenden Jongman, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Luc Feyen, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Reinhard Mechler, W. J. Wouter Botzen, Laurens M. Bouwer, Georg Pflug, Rodrigo Rojas, Philip J. Ward (2014) Increasing stress on disaster-risk finance due to large floods, Nature Climate Change, 4, p.264-268 doi:10.1038/nclimate2124

Jascha Lehmann, Dim Coumou, Katja Frieler, Alexey V Eliseev, Anders Levermann (2014) Future changes in extratropical storm tracks and baroclinicity under climate change, Environmental Research Letters, 9 (8), p.8 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/8/084002

Lenton, T. M. (2014) Game theory: Tipping climate cooperation, Nature Climate Change, 4, p.14-15 doi:10.1038/nclimate2078

Lenton, T. (2014) Earth systems: No place like home, Nature, 508, p.41-42 doi:10.1038/508041a

Franziska Piontek, Christoph Müller, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Douglas B. Clark, Delphine Deryng, Joshua Elliott, Felipe de Jesus Colón González, Martina Flörke, Christian Folberth, Wietse Franssen, Katja Frieler, Andrew D. Friend, Simon N. Gosling, Deborah Hemming, Nikolay Khabarov, Hyungjun Kim, Mark R. Lomas, Yoshimitsu Masaki, Matthias Mengel, Andrew Morse, Kathleen Neumann, Kazuya Nishina, Sebastian Ostberg, Ryan Pavlick, Alex C. Ruane, Jacob Schewe, Erwin Schmid, Tobias Stacke, Qiuhong Tang, Zachary D. Tessler, Adrian M. Tompkins, Lila Warszawski, Dominik Wisser, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber (2014) Multisectoral climate impact hotspots in a warming world, PNAS, 111 (9), p.3233-3238 doi: 10.1073/pnas.1222471110

P. Roudier, A. Ducharne, L. Feyen (2014) Climate change impacts on runoff in West Africa: a review, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2789–2801 doi:10.5194/hess-18-2789-2014

Schleussner, C-F., Levermann, A., Meinshausen, M. (2014) Probabilistic projections of the Atlantic overturning, Climatic Change, 127 (3), p.579-586, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1265-2

Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Katja Frieler, Pavel Kabat (2014) The elephant, the blind, and the intersectoral intercomparison of climate impacts, PNAS, 111 (9), p.3225–3227 doi: 10.1073/pnas.1321791111

Jacob Schewe, Jens Heinke, Dieter Gerten, Ingjerd Haddeland, Nigel W. Arnell, Douglas B. Clark, Rutger Dankers, Stephanie Eisner, Balázs M. Fekete, Felipe J. Colón-González, Simon N. Gosling, Hyungjun Kim, Xingcai Liu, Yoshimitsu Masaki, Felix T. Portmann, Yusuke Satoh, Tobias Stacke, Qiuhong Tang, Yoshihide Wada, Dominik Wisser, Torsten Albrecht, Katja Frieler, Franziska Piontek, Lila Warszawski, and Pavel Kabat (2014) Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change, PNAS, 111 (9), p.3245-3250, doi:10.1073/pnas.1222460110

J., R. Scholes, R. Betts, S. Bunn, P. Leadley, D. Nepstad, J.T. Overpeck, and M.A. Taboada, 2014: Terrestrial and inland water systems. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field, C.B., V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L. White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 271-359.

Lila Warszawski, Katja Frieler, Veronika Huber, Franziska Piontek, Olivia Serdeczny, and Jacob Schewe (2014) The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI–MIP): Project framework, PNAS, 111 (9), p.3228–3232, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1312330110

Leonie Wenz, Sven Norman Willner, Robert Bierkandt, Anders Levermann (2014) Acclimate—a model for economic damage propagation. Part II: a dynamic formulation of the backward effects of disaster-induced production failures in the global supply network. Environment Systems and Decisions, 34 (4), pp 525–539 DOI: 10.1007/s10669-014-9521-6


Rob Bellamy, R., Chilvers, J., Vaughan, N. E., Lenton, T. M.  (2013) ‘Opening up’ geoengineering appraisal: Multi-Criteria Mapping of options for tackling climate change, Global Environmental Change, 23 (5), p.926-937 doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.07.011

Boucher, O., Forster, P. M., Gruber, N., Ha-Duong, M., Lawrence, M. G., Lenton, T. M., Maas, A., Vaughan, N. E. (2013) Rethinking climate engineering categorization in the context of climate change mitigation and adaptation, WIREs Climate Change, 5 (1), p.23-35 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.261

Alvaro Calzadilla, Katrin Rehdanz, Richard Betts, Pete Falloon, Andy Wiltshire, Richard S. J. Tol (2013) Climate change impacts on global agriculture, Climatic Change, 120 (1), p.357-374 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0822-4

Juan-Carlos Ciscar, Bert Saveyn, Antonio Soria, Laszlo Szabo, Denise Van Regemorter, Tom Van Ierland (2013) A comparability analysis of global burden sharing GHG reduction scenarios, Energy Policy, 55, p.73–81 doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2012.10.044

Forzieri, Giovanni; Feyen, Luc; Rojas, Rodrigo (2013) Ensemble predictions of future streamflow drought in Europe, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18, p.85-108 doi:10.5194/hess-18-85-2014

Hazeleger, W., V. Guemas, B. Wouters, S. Corti, I. Andreu?Burillo, F. J. Doblas?Reyes, K. Wyser, and M. Caian (2013), Multiyear climate predictions using two initialization strategies, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 1794–1798, doi:10.1002/grl.50355.

Huntingford, C., Jones, P. D., Livina, V. N., Lenton, T. M., Cox, P. M. (2013) No increase in global temperature variability despite changing regional patterns, Nature, 500 p.327-330 doi:10.1038/nature12310

Jones, C., Williamson, P., Haywood, J., Lowe, J., Wiltshire, A., Lenton, T., Jones, A., Bernie, D. (2013) LWEC Geoengineering Report: A forward look for UK research on climate impacts of geoengineering, NERC-LWEC Publications

Torben Koenigk, Laurent Brodeau, Rune Grand Graversen, Johannes Karlsson, Gunilla Svensson, Michael Tjernström, Ulrika Willén, Klaus Wyser (2013) Arctic climate change in 21st century CMIP5 simulations with EC-Earth, Climate Dynamics, 40 (11), p.2719–2743 DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1505-y

Lenton, T., Vaughan, N. Eds. (2013) Geoengineering Responses to Climate Change, Springer-Verlag New York, DOI 10.1007/978-1-4614-5770-1

Timothy M. Lenton, Juan-Carlos Ciscar (2013) Integrating tipping points into climate impact assessments, Climatic Change, 117 (3), p.585–597 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-012-0572-8

Menon, A., Levermann, A., Schewe, J., Lehmann, J., and Frieler, K.(2013) Consistent increase in Indian monsoon rainfall and its variability across CMIP-5 models, Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 287-300, doi:10.5194/esd-4-287-2013, 2013.

Boini Narsimlu, Ashvin K. Gosain, Baghu R. Chahar (2013) Assessment of Future Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources of Upper Sind River Basin, India Using SWAT Model, Water Resources Management, 27 (10) p.3647–3662 DOI: 10.1007/s11269-013-0371-7

Powell, T., Lenton, T. (2013) Scenarios of global agricultural biomass harvest reveal conflicts and trade-offs for bioenergy with CCS, Copernicus, p.13338. 

Powell, T. W. R., Lenton, T. M., (2013) Scenarios for future biodiversity loss due to multiple drivers reveal conflict between mitigating climate change and preserving biodiversity, Environmental Research Letters, 8 (2)

Rodrigo Rojas, Luc Feyen, Paul Watkiss (2013) Climate change and river floods in the European Union: Socio-economic consequences and the costs and benefits of adaptation, Global Environmental Change, 23 (6), p.1737–1751 doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.08.006

Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Anders Levermann, Malte Meinshausen (2014) Probabilistic projections of the Atlantic overturning. Climatic Change, 127 (3), pp 579–586 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1265-2

Doug M. Smith, Adam A. Scaife, George J. Boer, Mihaela Caian, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Virginie Guemas, Ed Hawkins, Wilco Hazeleger, Leon Hermanson, Chun Kit Ho, Masayoshi Ishii, Viatcheslav Kharin, Masahide Kimoto, Ben Kirtman, Judith Lean, Daniela Matei, William J. Merryfield, Wolfgang A. Müller, Holger Pohlmann, Anthony Rosati, Bert Wouters, Klaus Wyser (2013) Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions, Climate Dynamics, 41 (11), p.2875–2888 DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1600-0

Toseland, A., Daines, S. J., Clark, J. R., Kirkham, A., Strauss, J., Uhlig, C., Lenton, T. M., Valentin, K., Pearson, G. A., Moulton, V., Mock, T. (2013) The impact of temperature on marine phytoplankton resource allocation and metabolism, Nature Climate Change, 3 p.979-984 doi:10.1038/nclimate1989

Rachel Warren, Jeff Price, Bernardo Strassburg, Jason Lowe, Sarah Raper (2013) AVOID 1: Modeling the Role of Remaining Tropical Forests in Climate Change Mitigation. AVOID: Avoiding dangerous climate change,

Warszawski, L., Friend, A., Ostberg, S., Frieler, K., Lucht, W., Schaphoff, S., Beerling, D., Cadule, P., Ciais, P., Clark, D.B. and Kahana, R. (2013) A multi-model analysis of risk of ecosystem shifts under climate change. Environmental Research Letters, 8(4), p.044018 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044018