The impact of high-end climate change scenarios over Europe, poster @climatparis2015 conference
The latest scientific evidence suggest that the increase in global mean temperature is likely to exceed the 2 degrees and target the 4 to 6 degree Celsius by the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, most of Europe is expected to warm more than the average global warming in the 21st century. The potential environmental, economic and social impacts of such high‐end warming scenarios has drawn the attention of the scientific community, which has a crucial role in advising future policy making.
In the framework of High‐End cLimate Impacts and eXtremes (HELIX) FP7 project, five biophysical impact models are set up to investigate the effect of high global warming levels over Europe. Impact models are focused on water management (JULES), floods, water resources and droughts (Lisflood), coastal hazard (Liscoast), energy (Poles) and crop (Orchidee). Models are tested and validated against large scale past extreme events such as major droughts and flood events that have occurred in the recent past. Calibrated models are then forced by the newly available Euro – CORDEX regional climate projections to evaluate changes in key indicators within the considered sectors over Europe. Output simulations are then used to examine possible implications of uncertainties in global patterns of climate change at 4ºC for impacts at regional scales. The, first results of the coordinated modeling effort are presented for the examined impact sectors.