These publications arise from and cite the HELIX grant number of European Funding 603864


Satoh, Y., Shiogama, H., Hanasaki, N., Pokhrel, Y., Boulange, J.E.S., Burek, P., Gosling, S.N., Grillakis, M., Koutroulis, A., Schmied, H.M., Thiery, W. and Yokohata, T. (2021)  A quantitative evaluation of the issue of drought definition: A source of disagreement in future drought assessment. Environmental Research Letters, 16 104001

Harrison, S., Jones, D., Anderson, K., Shannon, S., and Betts, R.A. (2021) Is ice in the Himalayas more resilient to climate change than we thought?, Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography, 103:1, 1-7, DOI: 10.1080/04353676.2021.1888202

Mathison, C., Challinor, A. J., Deva, C., Falloon, P., Garrigues, S., Moulin, S., Williams, K., and Wiltshire, A. (2021) Implementation of sequential cropping into JULESvn5.2 land-surface model, Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 437–471,

Marengo, J. A., Camarinha, P. I.,  Alves, L. M.,  Diniz, F., Betts, R. A. (2021) Extreme Rainfall and Hydro-Geo-Meteorological Disaster Risk in 1.5ºC, 2.0ºC and 4.0ºC global warming scenarios: An analysis for Brazil. Frontiers in Climate (in press)

Uhe, P., Mitchell, D., Bates, P. D., Allen,  M. R., Betts, R. A., Huntingford, C., King, A. D., Sanderson, B. M.,  Shiogama, H. (2021) Method Uncertainty Is Essential for Reliable Confidence Statements of Precipitation Projections Journal of Climate 34(3), 1227–1240  DOI:


De Longueville, F.; Ozer, P.; Gemenne, F. et al. (2020) ‘Comparing climate change perceptions and meteorological data in rural West Africa to improve the understanding of household decisions to migrate’. Climatic Change.

Khan, M.J.U.; Islam, A.K.M.S.; Bala, S.K. et al. (2020) ‘Changes in climate extremes over Bangladesh at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 4 °C of global warming with high-resolution regional climate modelling’. Theor Appl Climatol.


Arnell, N.W.; Lowe, J.A.; Challinor, A.J.; Osborn T.J. Climatic Change (2019) ‘Global and regional impacts of climate change at different levels of global temperature increase’ Volume 155, Issue 3
Bubeck, P.; Dillenardt, L.; Alfieri, L.; Feyen, L.; Thieken, A.H.; Kellermann, P. (2019) ‘Global warming to increase flood risk on European railwaysClimatic Change,
Koutroulis, A.G.; Papadimitriou, L.V.; Grillakis, M.G.; Tsanis, I.K.; R. Warren, R.; Betts, R.A (2019) ‘Global water availability under high-end climate change: A vulnerability based assessment‘ ELSEVIER, Global and Planetary Change, Volume 175, Pages 52-63, doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2019.01.013

Parkes, B.; Cronin, J.; Dessens, O.; Sultan, B. (2019) ‘Climate change in Africa: costs of mitigating heat stress‘ Climatic Change

Rahman, S., Islam, A.K.M.S., Saha, P. et al. (2019) ‘Projected changes of inundation of cyclonic storms in the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna delta of Bangladesh due to SLR by 2100‘ J Earth Syst Sci 128: 145.

Schewe, J. et al (2019) ‘State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremesNature Communications, Volume 10, article 1005,

Sultan, B.; Parkers, B.; Gaetani, M. (2019) ‘Direct and indirect effects of CO2 increase on crop yield in West Africa‘ RMetS International Journal of Climatology, Volume 39, Issue 4.


Alfieri, L., Dottori, F., Betts, R. A., Salamon, P., Feyen, L. (2018)’Multi-Model Projections of River Flood Risk in Europe under Global Warming.Climate 2018, 6, 6 doi:10.3390/cli6010006

Barnett, J. and Adger, W. N. (2018)Mobile worlds: choice at the intersection of demographic and environmental change. Annual Review of Environment and Resources Vol. 43

Bärring, L. and Strandberg, G. (2018) ‘Does the projected pathway to global warming targets matter?’ Environmental Research Letters, 13, 024029

Betts, R. A. and McNeall, D. (2018) ‘How much CO2 at 1.5 °C and 2 °C?Nature Climate Change, 8, 546–548
Betts, R. A., Alfieri, L., BradshawC., Caesar, J., Feyen, L., Friedlingstein, P., Gohar, L., Koutroulis, A., Lewis, K., Morfopoulos, C.,  Papadimitriou, L., Richardson, K. J., Tsanis, I., Wyser, K. (2018) ‘Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model’ Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A doi: 10.1098/rsta.2016.0452

Burton, C., Betts, R. A., Jones, C.D., Williams, K. (2018) ‘Will fire danger be reduced by using Solar Radiation Management to limit global warming to 1.5°C compared to 2°C?’ Geophysical Research Letters  doi:10.1002/2018GL077848

Challinor, A. J., Adger, N. W., Benton, T. G., Conway, D., Joshi, M., Frame D. (2018) “Transmission of climate risks across sectors and borders” Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A,

Harrison, S., Kargel, J. S., Huggel, C., Reynolds, J., Shugar, D. H., Betts, R. A., Emmer, A., Glasser, N., Haritashya, U. K., Klimeš, J., Reinhardt, L., Schaub, Y., Wiltshire, A., Regmi, D. and Vilímek, V. (2018) “Climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floodsThe Cryosphere, 12, 1195-1209,

Jones, D. B., Harrison, S., Anderson, K., Betts, R. A. (2018) “Mountain rock glaciers contain globally significant water storesNature Research, Scientific Reports, 8, article number: 2834 doi:10.1038/s41598-018-21244-w

Koutroulis, A.G.; Papadimitriou, L.V.; Grillakis, M.G.; Tsanis, I.K.; Wyser, K.; Caesar, J.; Betts, R.A. (2018) “Simulating Hydrological Impacts under Climate Change: Implications from Methodological Differences of a Pan European Assessment Water, 10, 1331;

Mathison, C., Deva, C., Falloon, P., and Challinor, A. J. (2018) “Estimating sowing and harvest dates based on the Asian summer monsoonEarth Syst. Dynam., 9, 563-592,

Mohammed, K., Islam, A. S., Islam, G. T., Alfieri, L., Khan, M. J. U., Bala, S. K., & Das, M. K. (2018).”Future Floods in Bangladesh under 1.5° C, 2° C, and 4° C Global Warming Scenarios” Journal of Hydrologic Engineering23(12), 04018050

Naumann, G.; L. Alfieri, K. Wyser, L. Mentaschi, R. A. Betts, H. Carrao, J. Spinoni, J. Vogt, L. Feyen (2018) “Global Changes in Drought Conditions under Different Levels of WarmingGeophysical Research Letters doi 10.1002/2017GL076521

Osborn, T.J., C.J. Wallace, J.A. Lowe, and D. Bernie (2018)Performance of pattern-scaled climate projections under high-end warming, part I: surface air temperature over landJ. Climate,

Ostberg, S., Schewe, J., Childers, K., and Frieler, K. (2018) “Changes in crop yields and their variability at different levels of global warmingEarth Syst. Dynam. 9, 479-496

Parkes, B., Sultan, B. & Ciais, P. Climatic Change (2018) “The impact of future climate change and potential adaptation methods on Maize yields in West Africa” Climatic Change

Parkes, B., Defrance, D., Sultan, B., Ciais, P., Wang, X. (2018) “Projected changes in crop yield mean and variability over West Africa in a world 1.5 K warmer than the pre-industrial eraEarth Syst. Dynam, 9, 119-134,

Shannon, S., Smith, R., Wiltshire, A., Payne, T., Huss, M., Betts, R. A., Caesar, J., Koutroulis, A., Jones, D. and Harrison, S. (2018) “Global glacier volume projections under high-end climate change scenariosThe Cryosphere Discuss, in review, 2018

Smith, P.; J. Price, A. Molotoks, R. Warren, Y. Malhi (2018) “Impacts on terrestrial biodiversity of moving from a 2°C to a 1.5°C targetPhil. Trans. R. Soc. A. doi

Steffen, Will; RockströmJohan; Richardson, Katherine; Lenton, Timothy M.; Folke, Carl; Liverman, Diana; Summerhayes, Colin P.; Barnosky, Anthony D.;  Cornell, Sarah E.; Crucifix, MichelDonges, Jonathan F.; Fetzer, Ingo; Lade, Steven J.; Scheffer, Marten; Winkelmann, Ricarda and Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim (2018) “Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene

Uddin, N.; Islam, A.K.M.S. ; Bala, S. Kumar; Islam, T.; Adhikary, S.; Saha, D.; Haque, S.; Fahad, G.R.; and Akter, R. (2018) “Mapping of Climate Vulnerability of the Coastal Regions of Bangladesh using Principal Component Analysis” Applied Geography, 102, 47-57

WarrenR. F., Wilby, R. L., Brown, K.; Watkiss, P., Betts, R. A., Murphy, J. M., Lowe, J. A. (2018)  “Advancing national climate change risk assessment to deliver national adaptation plans

Willner, S.N.; Levermann, A.; Zhao, F.; Frieler, K. (2018) “Adaptation required to preserve future high-end river flood risk at present levelScience Advances 4 doi: 10.1126/sciadv.aao1914


Alfieri, L.; B. Bisselink, F. Dottori, G. Naumann, A. de Roo, P. Salamon, K. Wyser, L. Feyen (2017) “Global projections of river flood risk in a warmer world” Earth’s Future doi: 10.1002/2016EF000485

Challinor, A., Adger, N. W., Benton, T. (2017) “Climate risks across borders and scalesNat. Clim. Change 7, 621–623, doi:10.1038/nclimate3380

Chang, J.; P. Ciais, X. Wang, S. Piao, G. Asrar, R. Betts, F. Chevallier, M. Dury, L. François, K. Frieler, A. García Cantú Ros, AJ Henrot, T. Hickler, A. Ito, C. Morfopoulos, G. Munhoven, K. Nishina, S. Ostberg, S. Pan, S. Peng, R. Rafique, C. Reyer, C. Rödenbeck, S. Schaphoff, J. Steinkamp, H. Tian, N. Viovy, J. Yang, N. Zeng, F. Zhao (2017) “Benchmarking carbon fluxes of the ISIMIP2a biome models” Special Issue Article in Environmental Research Letters. Environmental Research Letters, 12, 045002

Chang, J.,Ciais, P., Viovy N., Soussana, J.-F., Klumpp, K., and Sultan, B., (2017) “Future productivity and phenology changes in European grasslands for different warming levels: implications for grassland management and carbon balance” Carbon Balance and Management, 12 doi: 10.1186/s13021-017-0079-8

Chen,  M., Rashid Rafique, Ghassem R Asrar, Ben Bond-Lamberty, Philippe Ciais, Fang Zhao, Christopher P O Reyer, Sebastian Ostberg, Jinfeng Chang, Akihiko Ito, Jia Yang, Ning Zeng, Eugenia Kalnay, Tristram West, Guoyong Leng, Louis Francois, Guy Munhoven, Alexandra Henrot, Hanqin Tian, Shufen Pan, Kazuya Nishina, Nicolas Viovy, Catherine Morfopoulos, Richard Betts, Sibyll Schaphoff, Jörg Steinkamp and Thomas Hickler (2017) “Regional contribution to variability and trends of global gross primary productivity” Environmental Research Letters 12 (10)doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa8978

Fahad, Md. G. R., Islam, A. K. M., Nazari, R., Hasan, A. M., Islam, T. G. M. and Bala, S. K. (2017), “Regional changes of precipitation and temperature over Bangladesh using bias-corrected multi-model ensemble projections considering high-emission pathways” Int. J. Climatol. doi:10.1002/joc.5284

Frieler, K., R. A. Betts, E. Burke, P. Ciais, S. Denvil, D. Deryng, K. Ebi, T. Eddy, K. Emanuel, J. Elliott, E. Galbraith, S. N. Gosling, K. Halladay, F. Hattermann, T. Hickler, J. Hinkel, V. Huber, C. Jones, V. Krysanova, S. Lange, H. K. Lotze, H. Lotze-Campen, M. Mengel, I. Mouratiadou, H. Müller Schmied, S. Ostberg, F. Piontek, A. Popp, C. P. O. Reyer, J. Schewe, M. Stevanovic, T. Suzuki, K. Thonicke, H. Tian, D. P. Tittensor, R. Vautard, M. van Vliet, L. Warszawski1, F. Zhao (2017) “Assessing the impacts of 1.5  °C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project” Geoscientific Model Development

Frieler, Katja; Schauberger, Bernhard; Arneth, Almut; Balkovič, Juraj; Chryssanthacopoulos, James; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; Folberth, Christian; Khabarov, Nikolay; Müller, Christoph; Olin, Stefan; A. M. Pugh, Thomas; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Schewe, Jacob; Schmid, Erwin; Warszawski, Lila; Levermann, Anders (2017) “Understanding the weather signal in national crop‐yield variability” Earth’s Future doi:10.1002/2016ef000525

Gohar, Laila, J. Lowe J., Bernie, D. (2017). “The Impact of Bias Correction and Model Selection on Passing Temperature Thresholds: Timings of Passing Warming Levels” Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres.  doi:10.1002/2017JD026797

Grillakis, M. G., Koutroulis, A. G., Daliakopoulos, I. N., and Tsanis, I. K. (2017) “A method to preserve trends in quantile mapping bias correction of climate modeled temperature” Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 889-900, Supplement

Hasan, M.A., Islam, A.K.M.S. & Akanda, A.S. (2017) “Climate projections and extremes in dynamically downscaled CMIP5 model outputs over the Bengal delta: a quartile based bias-correction approach with new gridded data” Climate Dynamics.

Islam, A.K.M. Saiful, Supria Paul, Khaled Mohammed, Mutasim Billah, Md. Golam Rabbani Fahad, Md. Alfi Hasan, G. M. Tarekul Islam, Sujit Kumar Bala (2017) “Hydrological response to climate change of the Brahmaputra basin using CMIP5 general circulation model ensemble” Journal of Water and Climate Change, jwc2017076 doi:10.2166/wcc.2017.076

Ito, Akihiko; Nishina, Kazuya;  Reyer, Christopher & François, Louis & Henrot, Alexandra-Jane & Munhoven, Guy & Jacquemin, Ingrid & Tian, Hanqin & Yang, Jia & Pan, Shufen & Morfopoulos, Catherine & Betts, Richard & Hickler, Thomas & Steinkamp, Jörg & Ostberg, Sebastian & Schaphoff, Sibyll & Ciais, Philippe & Chang, Jinfeng & Rafique, Rashid & Zhao, Fang. (2017) “Photosynthetic productivity and its efficiencies in ISIMIP2a biome models: Benchmarking for impact assessment studies” Environmental Research Letters. 12 doi:085001. 10.1088/1748-9326/aa7a19

Jones D.B., S. Harrison, K. Anderson, H.L. Selley, J.L. Wood, R.A. Betts (2017) “The distribution and hydrological significance of rock glaciers in the Nepalese Himalaya” Global and Planetary Change, 160, 2018, 123-142, doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2017.11.005

Koutroulis, A.G., L.V. Papadimitriou, M.G. Grillakis, I.K. Tsanis, K. Wyser, R.A. Betts (2017) “Freshwater vulnerability under high end climate change. A pan-European assessment”  Science of the Total Environment

Le Quéré, Corinne et al: Global Carbon Budget 2017, Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss.,

Lenton, Timothy M., V. Dakos, S. Bathiany, M Scheffer (2017) “Observed trends in the magnitude and persistence of monthly temperature variability” Nature doi:10.1038/s41598-017-06382-x

Mohammed, Khaled, A.K.M. Saiful Islam,  M. Tarekul Islam, G & Alfieri, Lorenzo, Kumar Bala, Sujit, Khan, Md Jamal Uddin. (2017) “Extreme flows and water availability of the Brahmaputra River under 1.5 and 2 °C global warming scenarios” Climatic Change doi 10.1007/s10584-017-2073-2.

Mohammed, Khaled, A. K. M. S. Islam, G. M. T. Islam, L. Alfieri, S. K. Bala, J. U. Khan (2017) “Impact of High-End Climate Change on Floods and Low Flows of the Brahmaputra River” Journal of Hydrologic Engineering (ASCE) 22, doi:10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001567

Monioudi, I. N., Velegrakis, A. F., Chatzipavlis, A. E., Rigos, A., Karambas, T., Vousdoukas, M. I., Hasiotis, T., Koukourouvli, N., Peduzzi, P., Manoutsoglou, E., Poulos, S. E., and Collins, M. B. (2017) “Assessment of island beach erosion due to sea level rise: the case of the Aegean archipelago (Eastern Mediterranean)”  Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 449-466, doi.10.5194/nhess-17-449-2017

Papadimitriou, L. V., Koutroulis, A. G., Grillakis, M. G., and Tsanis, I. K. (2017) “The effect of GCM biases on global runoff simulations of a land surface model” Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 21, 4379-4401,

Schauberger, Bernhard, Sotirios Archontoulis, Almut Arnet., Juraj Balkovic, Philippe Ciais, Delphine Deryng, Joshua Elliott, Christian Folberth, Nikolay Khabarov, Christoph Mülle., Thomas A. M. Pugh, Susanne Kolinsky, Sibyll Schaphoff, Erwin Schmid, Xuhui Wang, Wolfram Schlenker, Katja Frieler (2017) “Consistent negative response of US crops to high temperatures in observations and crop models” Nature Communications 8, Article number: 13931 doi:10.1038/ncomms13931

Vousdoukas M. I., L. Mentaschi, E. Voukouvalas, M. Verlaan, L. Feyen (2017) “Extreme sea levels on the rise along Europe’s coastsEarth’s Future 5, Issue 3 doi: 10.1002/2016EF000505

Williams, K., J. Gornall, A. Harper, A. Wiltshire, D. Hemming, T. Quaife, T. Arkebauer, D. Scoby (2017) “Evaluation of JULES-crop performance against site observations of irrigated maize from Mead, NebraskaGeoscientific Model Development, 10, 1291-1320, 2017. doi:10.5194/gmd-10-1291-2017

Williamson, Mark S., M. Collins, S. S. Drijfhout, R. Kahana, J. V. Mecking, T. M. Lenton (2017) “Effect of AMOC collapse on ENSO in a high resolution general circulation model Climate Dynamics doi: 10.1007/s00382-017-3756-0

Zhao, F., Veldkamp, T. I. E., Frieler, K., Schewe, J., Ostberg, S., Willner, S., … Yamasaki, D. (2017) “The critical role of the routing scheme in simulating peak river discharge in global hydrological models” Environmental Research Letters, 12, 1-15. [075003]. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa7250


Alfieri, L., L. Feyen and G. Di Baldassarre (2016). “Increasing flood risk under climate change: a pan-European assessment of the benefits of four adaptation strategies.” Climatic Change 136(3-4): 507-521. doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1641-1

Alfieri, L., L. Feyen, P. Salamon, J. Thielen, A. Bianchi, F. Dottori and P. Burek (2016). “Modelling the socio-economic impact of river floods in Europe.” Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 16(6): 1401-1411. doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1401-2016

Anthoff, D., F. Estrada and R. S. J. Tol (2016). ‘Shutting Down the Thermohaline CirculationAmerican Economic Review 106(5): 602-606. doi:10.1257/aer.p20161102

Betts, R.A., C.D. Jones, J.R. Knight, R.F. Keeling and J.J. Kennedy (2016) ‘El Niño and a record CO2 rise.’ Nature Climate Change 6, 806–810 doi:10.1038/nclimate3063

Carrao, H., G. Naumann and P. Barbosa (2016). ‘Mapping global patterns of drought risk: An empirical framework based on sub-national estimates of hazard, exposure and vulnerability.’ Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions 39: 108-124. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.04.012

Chang, J. F., P. Ciais, M. Herrero, P. Havlik, M. Campioli, X. Z. Zhang, Y. F. Bai, N. Viovy, J. Joiner, X. H. Wang, S. S. Peng, C. Yue, S. L. Piao, T. Wang, D. A. Hauglustaine, J. F. Soussana, A. Peregon, N. Kosykh and N. Mironycheva-Tokareva (2016). ‘Combining livestock production information in a process-based vegetation model to reconstruct the history of grassland management’ Biogeosciences 13(12): 3757-3776. doi:10.5194/bg-13-3757-2016

Chang, J. F., P. Ciais, N. Viovy, N. Vuichard, M. Herrero, P. Havlik, X. H. Wang, B. Sultan and J. F. Soussana (2016). “Effect of climate change, CO2 trends, nitrogen addition, and land-cover and management intensity changes on the carbon balance of European grasslandsGlobal Change Biology 22(1): 338-350. doi: 10.1111/gcb.13050

Dottori, F., P. Salamon, A. Bianchi, L. Alfieri, F. A. Hirpa and L. Feyen (2016). “Development and evaluation of a framework for global flood hazard mapping.” Advances in Water Resources 94: 87-102. doi: 10.1016/j.advwatres.2016.05.002

Geiger, Tobias, Katja Frieler and Anders Levermann (2016) “High-income does not protect against hurricane losses” doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/8/084012

Lind, P., D. Lndstedt, E. Kjellstrom and C. Jones (2016). “Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Summer Precipitation over Central Europe in a Suite of High-Resolution Climate Models.” Journal of Climate 29(10): 3501-3518. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0463.1

Mengel, M., A. Levermann, K. Frieler, A. Robinson, B. Marzeion and R. Winkelmann (2016). “Future sea level rise constrained by observations and long-term commitment.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 113(10): 2597-2602. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1500515113

Mentaschi, L., Vousdoukas, M., Voukouvalas, E., Sartini, L., Feyen, L., Besio, G., and Alfieri, L. (2016) ‘The transformed-stationary approach: a generic and simplified methodology for non-stationary extreme value analysis’ Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3527-3547,

Mitchell, D.; James, R.; Forster, P.M.; Betts, R.A.; Shiogama, H. and Allen, M. (2016). ‘Realizing the impacts of a 1.5° C warmer worldNature Climate Change, vol. 6, pages 735–737

Osborn, T. J., C. J. Wallace, I. C. Harris and T. M. Melvin (2016). ‘Pattern scaling using ClimGen: monthly-resolution future climate scenarios including changes in the variability of precipitationClimatic Change 134(3): 353-369. doi:10.1007/s10584-015-1509-9

Papadimitriou, L. V., A. G. Koutroulis, M. G. Grillakis and I. K. Tsanis (2016). “High-end climate change impact on European runoff and low flows – exploring the effects of forcing biasesHydrology and Earth System Sciences 20(5): 1785-1808. doi:10.5194/hess-20-1785-2016

Schleussner, C. F., T. K. Lissner, E. M. Fischer, J. Wohland, M. Perrette, A. Golly, J. Rogelj, K. Childers, J. Schewe, K. Frieler, M. Mengel, W. Hare and M. Schaeffer (2016). ‘Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5° C and 2°C Earth Syst. Dynam. 7(2): 327-351. doi:10.5194/esd-7-327-2016

Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich, Joeri Rogelj, Michiel Schaeffer, Tabea Lissner, Rachel Licker, Erich M. Fischer, Reto Knutti, Anders Levermann , Katja Frieler, William Hare (2016) “Science and policy characteristics of the Paris Agreement temperature goal” Nature Climate Change, 6/9 doi:10.1038/nclimate3096

Velegrakis, A.F., Trygonis, V., Chatzipavlis, A.E. et al. (2016) “Shoreline variability of an urban beach fronted by a beachrock reef from video imagery” Nat. Hazards 83(Suppl 1): 201.

Vousdoukas, M. I., Voukouvalas, E., Mentaschi, L., Dottori, F., Giardino, A., Bouziotas, D., Bianchi, A., Salamon, P., and Feyen, L. (2016.) “Developments in large-scale coastal flood hazard mapping” Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1841-1853,

Vousdoukas, M.I., Voukouvalas, E., Annunziato, A. Giardino L. Feyen  (2016) “Projections of extreme storm surge levels along Europe” Clim. Dynam. 47: 3171.

Williamson, M. S., S. Bathiany and T. M. Lenton (2016) “Early warning signals of tipping points in periodically forced systems.” Earth Syst. Dynam. 7(2): 313-326. doi:10.5194/esd-7-313-2016


Alfieri, L., L. Feyen, F. Dottori and A. Bianchi (2015). “Ensemble flood risk assessment in Europe under high end climate scenarios.” Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions 35: 199-212. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.09.004

Alfieri, L., P. Burek, L. Feyen and G. Forzieri (2015). “Global warming increases the frequency of river floods in Europe.” Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 19(5): 2247-2260. doi:10.5194/hess-19-2247-2015

Boulton, C. A. and T. M. Lenton (2015). “Slowing down of North Pacific climate variability and its implications for abrupt ecosystem change.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 112(37): 11496-11501. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1501781112

Caia, Yongyang, Kenneth L. Judd, Timothy M. Lenton, Thomas S. Lontzek and Daiju Naritae (2015) “Environmental tipping points significantly affect the cost-benefit assessment of climate policies”  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 4606–4611, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1503890112

Chang, J. F., P. Ciais, N. Viovy, N. Vuichard, B. Sultan and J. F. Soussana (2015). “The greenhouse gas balance of European grasslands.” Global Change Biology 21(10): 3748-3761. doi: 10.1111/gcb.12998

Egbert H. van Nes1, Marten Scheer, Victor Brovkin, Timothy M. Lenton, Hao Ye, Ethan Deyle and George Sugihara (2015) “Causal feedbacks in climate change” Nature Climate Change 5(5) doi:10.1038/nclimate2568

Feldmann, J. and A. Levermann (2015). “Collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet after local destabilization of the Amundsen Basin.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 112(46): 14191-14196. doi:10.1073/pnas.1512482112

Feldmann, J. and A. Levermann (2015). “Interaction of marine ice-sheet instabilities in two drainage basins: simple scaling of geometry and transition time.” Cryosphere 9(2): 631-645. doi:10.5194/tc-9-631-2015

Friedlingstein, P. (2015). “Carbon cycle feedbacks and future climate change.” Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A-Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences 373(2054). doi: 10.1098/rsta.2014.0421

Frieler, K., A. Levermann, J. Elliott, J. Heinke, A. Arneth, M. F. P. Bierkens, P. Ciais, D. B. Clark, D. Deryng, P. Doll, P. Falloon, B. Fekete, C. Folberth, A. D. Friend, C. Gellhorn, S. N. Gosling, I. Haddeland, N. Khabarov, M. Lomas, Y. Masaki, K. Nishina, K. Neumann, T. Oki, R. Pavlick, A. C. Ruane, E. Schmid, C. Schmitz, T. Stacke, E. Stehfest, Q. Tang, D. Wisser, V. Huber, F. Piontek, L. Warszawski, J. Schewe, H. Lotze-Campen and H. J. Schellnhuber (2015). “A framework for the cross-sectoral integration of multi-model impact projections: land use decisions under climate impacts uncertainties.” Earth Syst. Dynam. 6(2): 447-460. doi:10.5194/esd-6-447-2015

Garcia-Carreras, L., A. J. Challinor, B. J. Parkes, C. E. Birch, K. J. Nicklin and D. J. Parker (2015). “The Impact of Parameterized Convection on the Simulation of Crop Processes.” Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 54(6): 1283-1296. doi: 10.1175/JAMC-D-14-0226.1

Koutroulis, A. G. , M.G. Grillakis, I.K. Tsanis, L. Papadimitriou (2015). ‘Evaluation of precipitation and temperature simulation performance of the CMIP3 and CMIP5 historical experiments.’ Climate Dynamics 47(5): 1881–1898. doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2938-x

Lontzek, Thomas S., Yongyang Cai, Kenneth L. Judd, Timothy M. Lenton (2015) “Stochastic integrated assessment of climate tipping points indicates the need for strict climate policy” Nature Climate Change 5, 441–444 doi:10.1038/nclimate2570

Mathison, C., A. J. Wiltshire, P. Falloon and A. J. Challinor (2015). “South Asia river-flow projections and their implications for water resources.” Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 19(12): 4783-4810. doi:10.5194/hess-19-4783-2015

Parkes, B., A. Challinor and K. Nicklin (2015). “Crop failure rates in a geoengineered climate: impact of climate change and marine cloud brightening.” Environmental Research Letters 10(8). doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084003

Peters, G. P., R. M. Andrew, S. Solomon and P. Friedlingstein (2015). “Measuring a fair and ambitious climate agreement using cumulative emissions.” Environmental Research Letters 10(10). doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/10/105004

Sillmann, J., T. M. Lenton, A. Levermann, K. Ott, M. Hulme, F. Benduhn and J. B. Horton (2015). “COMMENTARY: No emergency argument for climate engineering.” Nature Climate Change 5(4): 290-292. doi:10.1038/nclimate2539

Sillmann, Jana, Timothy M. Lenton, Anders Levermann, Konrad Ott, Mike Hulme, François Benduhn and Joshua B. Horton (2015) “COMMENTARY: Climate emergencies do not justify engineering the climate” Nature Climate Change 5, 290–292 doi:10.1038/nclimate2539

Strauss, B. H., S. Kulp and A. Levermann (2015). “Carbon choices determine US cities committed to futures below sea level.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 112(44): 13508-13513. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1511186112

Wenz, L., S. N. Willner, A. Radebach, R. Bierkandt, J. C. Steckel and A. Levermann (2015). “REGIONAL AND SECTORAL DISAGGREGATION OF MULTI-REGIONAL INPUT-OUTPUT TABLES – A FLEXIBLE ALGORITHM.” Economic Systems Research 27(2): 194-212. doi: 10.1080/09535314.2014.987731

Williamson, M. S. and T. M. Lenton (2015). “Detection of bifurcations in noisy coupled systems from multiple time series.” Chaos 25(3). doi: 10.1063/1.4908603.

Winkelmann, R., A. Levermann, A. Ridgwell, K. Caldeira (2015). ‘Combustion of available fossil-fuel resources sufficient to eliminate the Antarctic Ice Sheet’. Science Advance 1(8). doi:10.1126/sciadv.1500589


Bierkandt, R., Wenz, L., Willner, S.N. et al. Environ Syst Decis (2014) “Acclimate—a model for economic damage propagation. Part 1: basic formulation of damage transfer within a global supply network and damage conserving dynamics”34: 507.

Boulton, C. A., L. C. Allison and T. M. Lenton (2014). “Early warning signals of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse in a fully coupled climate model.” Nature Communications 5. doi:10.1038/ncomms6752

Ehlert, D. and A. Levermann (2014). “Mechanism for potential strengthening of Atlantic overturning prior to collapse.” Earth System Dynamics 5(2): 383-397. doi:10.5194/esd-5-383-2014

Friedlingstein, P., R. M. Andrew, J. Rogelj, G. P. Peters, J. G. Canadell, R. Knutti, G. Luderer, M. R. Raupach, M. Schaeffer, D. P. van Vuuren and C. Le Quere (2014). “Persistent growth of CO2 emissions and implications for reaching climate targets.” Nature Geoscience 7(10): 709-715. doi:10.1038/ngeo2248

Latham, J., A. Gadian, J. Fournier, B. Parkes, P. Wadhams and J. Chen (2014). “Marine cloud brightening: regional applications.” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society a-Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences 372(2031). doi: 10.1098/rsta.2014.0053

Raupach, M. R., S. J. Davis, G. P. Peters, R. M. Andrew, J. G. Canadell, P. Ciais, P. Friedlingstein, F. Jotzo, D. P. van Vuuren and C. Le Quere (2014). “Sharing a quota on cumulative carbon emissions.” Nature Climate Change 4(10): 873-879. doi:10.1038/nclimate2384

Schleussner, C. F., A. Levermann and M. Meinshausen (2014). “Probabilistic projections of the Atlantic overturning.” Climatic Change 127(3-4): 579-586. doi: 10.1007/s10584-014-1265-2

Wenz, L., Willner, S.N., Bierkandt, R. et al. Environ Syst Decis (2014) “Acclimate—a model for economic damage propagation. Part II: a dynamic formulation of the backward effects of disaster-induced production failures in the global supply network” 34: 525.