For detailed regional impact assessment over Europe, Africa and Asia, existing data has been supplemented with regional climate simulations. The data has been drawn from existing research, called the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), and the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). We expanded the available data with CMIP5 to a larger sample of available simulations and, for each Global Circulation Model (GCM) used. The resulting GCM ensemble is the primary input to global scale impact assessments in HELIX.
A number of studies have investigated the benefits of increased model resolution in representing climate extremes, and aim to provide a subset of GCM and Regional Climate Model (RCM) data targeted on the HELIX Specific Warming Levels that use significantly higher model resolution to better estimate potential future changes in extreme climate events.
To address the need for better information on future climate extremes, we used two GCMs to generate high-resolution, 30-year global timeslices centred on the HELIX SWLs. Specific decisions on the time-periods and SWLs were initially deferred until an assessment was made and extensive consultation with stakeholders occurred in the European and other Regional workshops. Sensitivity experiments investigated the risk of large and abrupt changes in regional climate variability over the three HELIX Regions. These experiments were designed using the high-resolution HELIX data. Results from these simulations were used for Africa, Asia and Tipping Points WPs document risks to regional climate, socio-economic and ecosystem stability.
Deliverables and Reports: